![]() (SOUNDBITE OF LAMBCHOP SONG, "STEVE MCQUEEN") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR. Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. We will leave it there for now, and we will be watching. But we should be watching to see not tomorrow but the next few weeks and months - to see whether or not this could be an opening for Turkey to pivot back to the West. So in the few seconds we have left, tell me the one thing you would advise us to keep our eyes on that you'll be watching for as the NATO conference kicks off tomorrow.ĪYDINTASBAS: I think Erdogan will be celebrated at tomorrow's conference. If that is really the case, that could have all types of implications, both in terms of geopolitics and in sort of driving a wedge between Erdogan and Putin. But on the other hand, it is a good signal that Turkey wants to pivot to the West. This is, of course, happening with a gun pointing to NATO's head. ![]() Of course, open the way is a very vague expression, but he's trying to extract also certain concessions from the European Union. EU should open the way for Turkey, and so then we can open the way for Sweden to enter NATO. And he brought up EU accession negotiations for Turkey, for Turkey's entry into the EU. You note, and I quote, that "Erdogan has the leverage to extract maximum concessions from the West." What else does he want, big picture?ĪYDINTASBAS: So he held a press conference this morning that I watched online early here. I do want to ask about one line from that that may not have been overtaken by events. I'll just note in the department of getting overtaken by events, you just this afternoon published an op-ed in The Washington Post headlined "Bargaining With Erdogan Over Sweden Joining NATO Will Be Difficult." And here we are with the summit not even officially underway, and we have this deal in place. And until today's announcement, which just came about less than an hour ago, everyone assumed Erdogan would drag his foot and really not let Sweden in. It seems the administration worked out a big megadeal that involves Greece - President Biden spoke to a Greek leader a few days ago - that involves Greece, Ankara and Congress, U.S. And they were also - they were concerned about Erdogan's domestic record, democratic backsliding but also regional policies, assertive policies in the Aegean that felt - that, of course, concerned Greeks. So Congress and congressional leaders had reservations. sanctions after it bought Russian missile systems a few years back. Turkey had been wanting to buy F-16s from the U.S.ĪYDINTASBAS: There was a congressional hold on this - quite a big-ticket item, as in 40 new jets and 80 - upgrading 80 of its existing. Do you have any sense of what may have changed to shift things today?ĪYDINTASBAS: I think it crystallized in Turkish demand for F-16s. KELLY: And, again, those negotiations had been happening for months. There were two tracks - one, the public one between Turkey and Sweden, but the real negotiations were taking place between Ankara and Washington. But behind the scenes, we had the Biden administration very involved in the process. But also, issues like Quran burnings that took place in Sweden this summer have not made it easier. So what's your reaction? What do you think happened?ĪYDINTASBAS: Erdogan had been dragging his feet for almost a year, accusing Sweden of supporting terrorism - of course, his definition of terrorism and what a terrorist is tends to be very wide - and accusing Sweden of, you know, harboring people he considers terrorists. ![]() President Erdogan had been bulking on this for months. For more on that dynamics at play, we have called on Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. This brings to an end months of speculation about what Erdogan would do given his long list of demands for moving ahead with Sweden's nomination. Today a major development just one day ahead of tomorrow's NATO summit - Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has agreed to move forward with Sweden's nomination to the military alliance. ![]()
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